Time line of a the 2008 Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis.

Its interesting to fully understand how 2008 crisis happened. Well, it will be hard to understand whether the effort to solve the crisis which is QE really solve the property bubble or not. What I see is just stock market that continue to rise higher and higher. What do you think?

Reduce mistake

Just had a simple talk on investment strategy with my second brother last weekend. We talked about his early investment route that cost him more than 10k loses. He stepped into Klse right before the 2008 Great Depression and got out of control when he chose to buy cheap warrant stocks. At that time, I still haven't start my investment since still study in university.

Cheap plus warrant is simply the fastest way to lose money. Warrant is just issue for certain time and one who buy this must be ready to exercise it. Although I had invested in stock market for more than two years, I still haven't confident with warrant so I choose not to touch it. My brother could have avoid such loses if he did not buy something he not clear with.

Plantation counters

Well, it looks like CPO future is reducing in fast pace. Just surfing around and found this website that I think is pretty good with its news and data. http://www.palmoilhq.com/palm-oil-plantation-stocks/ . 

Prediction vs reality

Hmm, look like my prediction is again wrong on the market. With Bank Negara tighten the borrowing last Friday, BNM did not take further action to cool off the property sector since the OPR is still set at 3% yesterday. With the rate still the same, I think those who afford will still use property as their investment tool since the current rule only limit housing loan repayment up to 35 years that is certainly not affecting the rich investor.


     I believe nothing in the world can continue to increase without stop. Remember few years back, we used to believe gold and crude oil will continue to surge up high and will not come down again. Look at those commodity now, this prediction surely did not fit in the reality. It will all go back to demand and supply. With intermediate double storey terrace house reaching half million and semi detached easily reach more than million, this is definitely not fitting with the current average household income in my home town. Every now and then, people keep on advising me that if not buying now then it will be hard to buy again next time. That definitely sound very familiar with any bubble in the past. Property sectors is cylindrical and the price is already beyond the affordability of most household. I just stick with my prediction and wait the reality to review itself in future.

Continue clearing my portfolio

Today clear off my panamy that was with me for almost two year. My average was 21.5 and receive almost RM200 of dividend last year. Overall, I gained another 1k plus and quite happy with it although I know it may increase some more later on since it looks like bullish every where now.

When everyone believe in uptrend and getting greedy, we must be well prepare that any time there will be a correction coming soon. I am sure there will be quite some happy hour later and more people are already forgetting what happened last few weeks. I am sure the drop will come soon, if not because of foreign sell off, it will also be the Hari Raya calendar effect since fund manager usually sold off some counters before going off for holiday. Besides the gain from Panamy, I also manage to gain few hundreds from trading on Yeelee but it seems to be selling a little bit too early.

Raya cheap sale is what I waiting for and at the same time, there are just too many factors can change the stock market currently including the Turkey political stability, Us employment rate, Europe Central bank decision on interest rate, Japanese president election and so on. Lets see what happen next.

Lock in profit

Its obvious that summer holiday is coming soon in United States. I just google around and found out that their summer holiday start 22 June. So what so important about that? Refresh back with the news on FED on QE. Since news about tapering QE probably starting from this Summer announced, stock around the world start to decrease in fast pace.


Although today we saw various market start to rebound but how long can this last? Thinking again and again, I plan to lock in my profit so I sold some in my portfolio namely CBIP, Prestariang and Cscstel. I just don't feel safe without cash on my hand since there may be bigger opportunity soon. The stocks I sold may rebound and increase in future but I think securing my capital is more important since I need more cash to wait for cheap sale.


Now its only left Panamy and Supermax in my account. The reason of not selling this two counters is because Panamy going to have Rm1.72 dividend in September so I think will have some support while Supermax is already suffering  paper loss. The last experience of selling a loss counter make me very regret and ever since, I don't like to sell losing counter. I will keep Supermax to remind myself of important to look on various perspectives before buying stock again.

Mistakes?

After two weeks of selling Prestariang, I never expect it will continue to shoot up. With heavy selling pressure everyday, it turns out that EPF become the saviour and the major shareholders. I always wonder who will manage to absorb those selling pressure.  I believe EPF that has continuous cash flow will push up this counter so that they manage to pay higher dividend to the EPF holders.

On the other side, Supermax is getting higher selling pressure as well. Ever since the boss stand up for PKR, EPF is selling down and stop becoming the major shareholder. I also wonder who are the person who bought those shares since no announcement about who turn up to become major share holders. If it is the retail shareholders, it will be hard for Supermax to maintain its share price since retail shareholders usually hold shorter duration compare those institutions. Since MERS is still around Saudi and infecting more places, I believe glove counters will benefit from this disease although I hope it will not spread since its very deadly.

Less wait and see, the difference between this two counters. It will be interesting to see whether there exist any difference when EPF enter or exit. Today I also bought in CBIP clearing all my cash and I am 100% in stocks again. Although FED always threaten to stop QE, I believe those weak US data will force them to continue or create new move. Macroeconomy factors are always hard to predict so just look at the fundamental of the company and stay with it as long as it earning money.