竞争优势

如果大家要在某领域成功，大家通常都需要一些竞争优势。这些优势可以是很多类，比如你会一些其他人都不会的技巧，你有一些特别的人脉，你有影响力，你生产的产品是其它地方找不到的。以这简单的思考就能帮你想出为何一些人可以特别成功，每个人都只有24小时，为什么他们能有这样的成就？

比如一位厨师可以令一个餐馆生意特别火红是因为他拿手好菜，一位医生特别出名因为都可以把病人医好。所以我们不必什么都会，只要做好我们会的事情，我们就有成功的一天。

以这样的思考在投资也是可行的，比如一些公司为什么可以几十年乘至百年还在而且越做越好就是不断把他们会的东西越做越好。把成本管好，盈利就增加。和首相做好朋友就拿到mrt工程（这是不好的，因为当他好朋友不是首相，这公司就失去优势了）。还有一些公司因为特别的执照也让他们一直很成功尤其是垄断市场，不赚钱也难。

所以你有想想你的竞争优势是什么？要成功就好好想想吧！然后把它做好！祝你早日成功！

Lastest update on portfolio

It's been some time not coming back to write something, I have been thinking of what to learn after graduated from MBA. Stock investment has increase steadily recently as I reorganize my portfolio after paying differential amount for my first house.

Among the changes to my portfolio is as below:
i. Dispose Supermax after a fire destroy the quarter report at RM2.8.
ii. Add in Prlerxus 7200 units at RM1.13.
iii. Add in Opensys 18000 units at RM0.225
iv. Add in Presbhd 1000 units at RM3.5
v. Add in Liihen 4200 units at RM1.9.
 The only mistake so far was Liihen where it failed to continue the uptrend although other furniture counter already shoot up quite high. Its definitely quite bad luck when it suddenly announce a fire broke out again in the subsidiary. Will see how next week.

Watch out your trading fees

With KLCI achieving new high everyday, I am sure it catches a lot attention. More people from all walk of lifes will get into stock market. Buying in at new high May be a bad idea as you never know whether its peak or not. It's always better to avoid buying in at overbought stage that can be determine using some technical indicators such as RSI more than 70 or touching above the upper bollinger bands and etc. I will prefer momentum trading that need to trade more frequent compare to buy and hold. Thus, trading fee is a major issue. The few trades I made recently charge me few hundreds that reduce my profit margin. Therefore I switch from normal plan that charge 0.42% or minimum RM12 to Trade Beyond that only charge 0.1% or minimum RM8. The 0.32% difference definitely make a lot difference.

To buy a house or not

It's been some time not writing over here as I have been busy handling my house loan. Although Fed is going to reduce QE soon, I have waited long enough to decide buying my own house. Still remember 4 years ago when I started working, double stories terrace intermediate was just around Rm300k and it was just 1km away from my current home. Now the house I bought in cost me Rm378k and it's 13km away. Not only smaller but also much further and expensive. With everything rising price now, inflation is everywhere.

By buying the house, I will end up finish my saving and investment capital accumulated this four years. It's also good for me to start from zero again as I am still young. Next year have to save more money and look for opportunity to increase my income.

With crazy bull around, I manage to get another 2 thousands through Supermax but also encounter loses in Airasia after cut lose at 2.46. Luckily sold yeelee at 1.33 that I bought in 1.24 but again lose in Supermax CO when I accidentally cut lose at0.285 with average bought in price at 0.3. These few trades overall just made me 1 thousand plus.

Up up down down

Market is expected to be highly fluctuated with a lot negative news around. The first we will see will be another round of US debt ceiling that is going to happen on 1 October. The last similar event took place two years ago and market really showed some big discount. Therefore I did not buy much recently. The only deal is  buying in 2000units of Airasia at RM2.61 after FED announce QE will be continued. It did rise till RM2.74 before dropping back again to RM2.6 level. The reason I bought in Airasia is to hedge against my Supermax taking advantage of US dollar depreciation since FED continue to print money. Airasia will be benefited if Ringgit getting strong while Supermax will be good if Ringgit depreciated. Will stick to this two stocks in the mean times since have no idea on the outcome in October. Saving more bullet to prepare for some real correction, hope this time is for real.

Lock in profit

With the US senate approve Syria war on last Wednesday night, I quickly sold off Airasia at RM2.61 on Thursday morning anticipating more conflict to come as Syria war is a sensitive international issue. My guess was right when Russia presiden voice against US by supporting Syria. This will definitely going to be very huge impact to the stock market if US still go on with the strike. This again can cause a panic selling and will be a good entry to catch a rebound later on.

Besides Airasia, I also lock in profit for 2500 units Supermax at RM2.75 on Thursday because RSI already more than 70 meaning its highly over bought this few days. Left 2500 units to see whether it can still continue with the rally as the situation is benefiting the company. Continue collecting cash to anticipate for more market fluctuation. My strategy is to catch rebound by looking for good fundamental company that strike RSI below 30. I think RSI and MACD is really useful tool for short term investment. Good luck and let see how is the market next week.

It can be a disaster but also an opportunity

With bad news flooding the market from QE tapering till the lastest of possible war in Syria, we can easily observe negative news from all source of media. Of course when normal people like us receive the news, market already show the require changes. The use of biological weapon in Syria is nothing new but when US announce of taking punishment action, market suddenly alert about this threat. The first changes after market start to slide, price of crude oil and gold start to shoot up. Together with foreign selling pressure, the drop in last week was really quite pretty.

Many margin user did receive margin call but it didn't get serious until force selling happen. However, the bearish market did not persist until the weekend because the local institutional did some window dressing since this weekend is our independence day. With the panic selling happened last week, now is the technical rebound stage. Whether this trend continue or not will depend on whether Syria war really occur in next week.

With UK stepping down from participating in the war, I bought in 20lots  Airasia in anticipating for a rebound at RM2.55 while I sold off 20 lots of Supermax at RM2.35 after nothing much changes even though the quarter result is great. I contra 30 lots of Yeelee at RM1.17 that I bought at RM1.12 on last Tuesday and earn around RM110 after deducting the trading charges. I am getting ready to ride the wave and will definately anticipate more wave coming.

Another wave coming soon

Before last Tuesday, everything in KLSE seem normal. All of sudden, selling volume increase tremendously. I manage to sell off Cscstel at 1.32 and Marco at 0.155 to increase my cash position and gain around RM180 after deducting trading charges. However, I did a mistake of adding 20 lots Supermax at 2.4 increasing my average price to Rm2.195. This make me hesitate on Thursday to increase my position at RM2.22 when panic selling happen again.

 I will keep Supermax since its quarter report should be out by next week. Hopefully the result will be great since US dollar appreaciate a lot and rubber price has been stable all this while. Demand also increases as I observed there are quite a lot outbreak of bird flu around the world including Mers in Saudi Arab, H7N9 in China, H1N5 in Cambodia, H1N1 in India and flu season is coming in US from October to May.

FED's minute on last Friday did not mention much of QE tapering so I would expect there will be another round of panic selling around 17 and 18 September. For the mean time, we may observe technically rebound and the one thing I wanna make sure is whether foreign shareholders will sell again. So far this had happen to Indonesia, Thailand and Filiphine, it just unknown when is Malaysia's turn. Therefore, I get ready my bullet and also buy myself a new gadget Samsung S4 as a reward for myself.

Position strategically

After some time invested in KLSE, I believe we all can perform much better as long we can position our portfolio well. Although we may not be as professional as fund manager, retail investor has much more freedom in handling their portfolio. Unlike retail investors, fund managers not only need to invest more than 90% of the fund at any time, but also most of the time only cover stocks which are relatively well known. Fund managers seldom touch on small capital counter as they are mostly under coverage. Therefore, it will be the best if retail investor can make the move much faster than those fund manager did. Along the years, I observed many such counters such as Prestariang, tambun,  Myeg and so on. These hidden gems are little known when they firstly listed and become popular when some report are written on them. I believe there are still many such counters since there are over 1000 counters in KLSE. Such value investment is alike with the popular investor called the Cold Eye or Fond Si Ling in Malaysia.

Before start any investment, I will always look for a theme behind those counters. Supermax for example is bought when H7N9 broke out in China. Only after i bought in Supermax, i found out MERS in Saudi Arabia has lasted even longer than H7n9. Now Malaysia Ringgit depreciating and reducing rubber price will surely help Supermax to gain further. This is because its earning is positively correlated with US dollar value since Supermax export all its rubber glove manufacture in Malaysia. Rubber price that contribute to the cost of rubber glove is negatively related with Supermax's  earning. Although Supermax's new plant haven't finish according to the schedule, I believe the 2nd quarter result will be much better than before. Buy in the right time, right place and we will gain the right returns. Lets wait and see.

New move into the market

After tired of waiting for correction, I made some move this few days.

Last thursday I bought in 30 lots of Cscstel for 1.29 in anticipating for 2nd quarter result but it seems to be quite dissapointing as it turned out EPS only 2cents making EPS up till 2 quarters only around 6 cents. In quarter report, Cscstel is anticipating a much weaker outlook for next half year since steel is still abundance from China. However, I observed Cscstel started a new round of share buyback again. With 70 cents per share, I think Cscstel can use those money to buy back share in the open market to improve EPS since they seldom distribute special dividend this few years. The following is the newest price target by Hong Leong together with their report:

Hong Leong Trading Buy for Cscstel aiming RM1.50

Highlights
On a qoq basis, 2Q13 net profit weakened to RM7.5m (from RM17.5m in the previous quarter) mainly on the back of:
 (1) Lower sales volume;
 (2) Lower selling prices; and
(3) RM9.4m inventory writedown.

1H13 net profit rose by 54.3% to RM25.1m mainly on the back of the strong performance due to sharp recovery in sales volume (whereby earnings registered in 1Q13 itself was already more than the earnings registered in 1H12), but partly mitigated by RM9.4m inventory writedown incurred in 2Q13.

While international steel prices seem to have stabilized, we are holding our cautious view on the company’s mediumterm outlook as overcapacity in the region (in particularly, China, Indian, and Korean steel mills) will continue to weigh on the sector’s profitability including CSC Steel. Despite our less bullish view on the company’s earnings outlook, we believe share price downside is limited by its RM265.8m net cash (translates to 70 sen/share or 54% of share price) in its balance sheet.

Risks

Downside risks-
(1) Overcapacity in China remains over the longer term; (2) Volatile input prices; and (3) Influx of steel products at cheap prices.

Forecasts

We are maintaining our 2013 earnings forecast, but cut 2014 earnings forecast by 19% to RM43.5m largely to account for lower sales volume assumption.

Rating

Trading BUY
Positives – Strong balance sheet
Negatives – Inability to pass on higher cost of raw materials to end-users

Valuation

SOP-derived TP cut by 6.8% to RM1.50 to reflect the downward adjustment in our 2014 earnings forecast, which more than offset a slightly higher net cash balance. Maintain T.BUY call on the stock.
Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 5 Aug 2013
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/17341.jsp


Besides that, I also topped up another 15 lots of Supermax at RM2.25 today to add up total of 50lots. Malaysia Ringgit depreciating toward Us dollar together with softening of rubber price and increasing of Mers cases lead me to accumulate more Supermax. Supermax at PE 12.39 still way behind its opponent's PE namely Topglov 17.6, Harta 21.15 and Kossan 16.52. Still waiting for Supermax latest quarter result to see what is the next move. I hope this will come before Fed next meeting on 16 and 17 September as I will clear of some stocks again to wait for another round of stock discount. Tomorrow will only be half day trading since Raya is coming. Selamat Hari Raya for those who are celebrating.

Tired of waiting

Well, looking at KLCI that move up higher and higher is a very tiring process especially when already sold out most of the stock in my portfolio. So I decided to buy in some hidden gems again. This time the stock is MARCO. http://www.marcoholdings.com.my

Marco Holdings Berhad is a Malaysia-based company engaged in investment holding and the provision of management services to its subsidiaries. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the distribution of electronic calculators and timepiece including the brand of Casio, Catterpilar, Movado, Hush Puppies and Dunlop . Within 5 years from 2007, Marco's eps from 0.56 cent had rise to almost four times at 2.04cent in 2012.

MARCO's major operation can be divided into local market and regional market (thailand, singapore, vietnam, brunei, cambodia, myammar). In local market, it is further divided into timepiece division, calculator division and musical keyboard and digital camera division. In 2012， timepiece division's revenue covered 56%， calculator division covered16%， musical keyboard and digital camera division covered by 7% and regional market covered 21%.

Since Malaysia government started to distribute BRIM in 2012 to students from all level including primary, secondary and tertiary,  this drived MARCO's calculator division revenue to rise 4.2million or  29% from 14.2million in 2011 to 18.6million in 2012. Although calculator division is only the third contributor，I believed Marco's Casio calculator has indispencible position in Malaysian education system. I personally have few of this and still usable until this days. I bet every Malaysian have one because it has become a neccessity in studying Mathematics in the secondary.

SWOT Analysis

Strength
1. Marco has operated since 1972 and 41 years of experience prove the company can go through any economy crisis.
 2. Government every year provide book voucher and allowance for students to buy stationary and indirectly increase the purchase of calculators.
3. Casio calculator is well known for its quality and long lasting which increase its brand awareness.
4. The table for quarter financial result above shows a steady increase in EPS proving that the company is in the right track.
5. The dividend given in 2012 was 1.4 cent which equivalent to DY of 9% based on share price of 15 cent.
6. The company is cash rich with 5.6 cent per share equivalent to more than 30% of the share price.
7. Casio calculator is the main preference for all secondary and tertiary students.
8. Marco had achieved positive earning since 2002 and continue to increase in EPS according to http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/3514.jsp


 Weakness
1. Marco does not possess the monopoly in the market as consumer can get Casio from other suppliers.
2. There will be competitors for its watches since Marco only distribute few brands.
3. Marco's warrant will reach due date in 2014 and will sure dilute its EPS. Marco's share issued is 794,589,500 units, Marco's wa is 272,484,780 units. Let say all the WA is exercised and the total share unit will be  1,067,074,280. If  company maintain the profit like 2012 which was RM14,872,000, then EPS will be RM14,872,000/1,067,074,280= RM0.139 which still make MARCO's PE around 10 now.

 Opportunity
1. The number of students in Malaysia is the potential client for Marco's calculator.

Number of students in Malaysia
                    Boy          Girl
Preschool      97,158    94,784
Primary     1,411,082   1,332,067
Secondary 1,134,792   1,144,378
Total         2,643,032   2,571,229
Total amount :  5,214,261
source :http://www.moe.gov.my/

2. Government had assure there will be BRIM for students annually increasing student's purchasing power.

Threat
1. Economy downturn decreasing sales of Marco's watches and calculators.
2. Government may not be able to continue BRIM for long term.

In the process of studying this stock, I even email Marco to ask about their operation and I did get the reply rather fast from the head of marketing department as below:

My email:

Hi, I am one of the new share holder of Marco Holding Bhd. I read through your website and annual report but I failed to confirm whether Marco is the sole distributor for Casio product in Malaysia or in this South East Asia region. Is Marco the only distributor for Casio calculator?

 In the list provided in the website did not include established bookstore such as Popular Book store, MPH, Smart Book shop and larger chain of book store that I think Marco can further explore into to increase market share in calculators. If Marco can monopoly the supply of Casio product, I believe the revenue and profit will increase tremendously.
Marco's reply:

 My name is Lam Wai Khuen & I am appointed Head of Department of Sales & Marketing for Marco Corporation.

The core product that I am handling is CASIO watches & calculators product

Marco are indeed the official authorised distributor for CASIO (Timepiece, Calculators, Musical Instrument & Digital Camera) in Malaysia.

Under the current practices by CASIO Computer, they have not been encouraging their authorised distributors to use the term called "sole distributors" for reasons.

The recognized all their appointed partner as DMD (Domestic Marketing Distributor).

To clear the doubts, yes we are the only appointed distributor in Malaysia

Please refer to the web link (by CASIO) mentioned below:

For Watches: http://www.casio-intl.com/asia-mea/en/support/sales/wat/

For Calculators: http://www.casio-intl.com/asia-mea/en/support/sales/calc/

For Camera: http://www.casio-intl.com/asia-mea/en/support/sales/dc/

For Musical Instrument: http://www.casio-intl.com/asia-mea/en/support/sales/emi/

We are currently supplying to your mentioned key resellers.

In our distribution channel, supplying of product could be either direct or indirect approach.

Off course, we which we preferred direct supplying as we have more control of the supply & execution of marketing activities.

But there are some retailers tends to consolidate the suppliers & only work with certain appointed company to supply.

Under such icircumstances, we have to opt for the indirect supplying approach.

The product that supplied by Marco Group of Companies are instantly recognized upon via the imports stickers which mentioned of "Diimport Oleh"

Next to be trace,  it our warranty card issued by MARCO.

As benefit to an appointed DMD, we are supplied with rare or limited editions to maximized our sales.

Also, we are supported with marketing fund to executed CASIO global marketing events such Shock The World Promotional Tour & sales campaign which ultimately benefit the brand & profitability to the business.

Along our progress, we as DMD is authorized to set up flagship store for CASIO (Timepiece) under the tradename called G-Factory

Monopoly market doesnt exist for CASIO products.

Parallel importations or grey marketeers do exist & this are not new scene in distribution trade.

Eg: In automobile industrial: you have the AP to import car, in phone industry: AP units & others consumer or electronic goods.

We sincerely, hope the above would clarify to your thoughts and continue to provide you the confidences as share holder to Marco Holding Berhad.

Thank you.

Best regards,

Lam Wai Khuen

Time line of a the 2008 Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis.

Its interesting to fully understand how 2008 crisis happened. Well, it will be hard to understand whether the effort to solve the crisis which is QE really solve the property bubble or not. What I see is just stock market that continue to rise higher and higher. What do you think?

Reduce mistake

Just had a simple talk on investment strategy with my second brother last weekend. We talked about his early investment route that cost him more than 10k loses. He stepped into Klse right before the 2008 Great Depression and got out of control when he chose to buy cheap warrant stocks. At that time, I still haven't start my investment since still study in university.

Cheap plus warrant is simply the fastest way to lose money. Warrant is just issue for certain time and one who buy this must be ready to exercise it. Although I had invested in stock market for more than two years, I still haven't confident with warrant so I choose not to touch it. My brother could have avoid such loses if he did not buy something he not clear with.

Plantation counters

Well, it looks like CPO future is reducing in fast pace. Just surfing around and found this website that I think is pretty good with its news and data. http://www.palmoilhq.com/palm-oil-plantation-stocks/ . 

Prediction vs reality

Hmm, look like my prediction is again wrong on the market. With Bank Negara tighten the borrowing last Friday, BNM did not take further action to cool off the property sector since the OPR is still set at 3% yesterday. With the rate still the same, I think those who afford will still use property as their investment tool since the current rule only limit housing loan repayment up to 35 years that is certainly not affecting the rich investor.


     I believe nothing in the world can continue to increase without stop. Remember few years back, we used to believe gold and crude oil will continue to surge up high and will not come down again. Look at those commodity now, this prediction surely did not fit in the reality. It will all go back to demand and supply. With intermediate double storey terrace house reaching half million and semi detached easily reach more than million, this is definitely not fitting with the current average household income in my home town. Every now and then, people keep on advising me that if not buying now then it will be hard to buy again next time. That definitely sound very familiar with any bubble in the past. Property sectors is cylindrical and the price is already beyond the affordability of most household. I just stick with my prediction and wait the reality to review itself in future.

Continue clearing my portfolio

Today clear off my panamy that was with me for almost two year. My average was 21.5 and receive almost RM200 of dividend last year. Overall, I gained another 1k plus and quite happy with it although I know it may increase some more later on since it looks like bullish every where now.

When everyone believe in uptrend and getting greedy, we must be well prepare that any time there will be a correction coming soon. I am sure there will be quite some happy hour later and more people are already forgetting what happened last few weeks. I am sure the drop will come soon, if not because of foreign sell off, it will also be the Hari Raya calendar effect since fund manager usually sold off some counters before going off for holiday. Besides the gain from Panamy, I also manage to gain few hundreds from trading on Yeelee but it seems to be selling a little bit too early.

Raya cheap sale is what I waiting for and at the same time, there are just too many factors can change the stock market currently including the Turkey political stability, Us employment rate, Europe Central bank decision on interest rate, Japanese president election and so on. Lets see what happen next.

Lock in profit

Its obvious that summer holiday is coming soon in United States. I just google around and found out that their summer holiday start 22 June. So what so important about that? Refresh back with the news on FED on QE. Since news about tapering QE probably starting from this Summer announced, stock around the world start to decrease in fast pace.


Although today we saw various market start to rebound but how long can this last? Thinking again and again, I plan to lock in my profit so I sold some in my portfolio namely CBIP, Prestariang and Cscstel. I just don't feel safe without cash on my hand since there may be bigger opportunity soon. The stocks I sold may rebound and increase in future but I think securing my capital is more important since I need more cash to wait for cheap sale.


Now its only left Panamy and Supermax in my account. The reason of not selling this two counters is because Panamy going to have Rm1.72 dividend in September so I think will have some support while Supermax is already suffering  paper loss. The last experience of selling a loss counter make me very regret and ever since, I don't like to sell losing counter. I will keep Supermax to remind myself of important to look on various perspectives before buying stock again.

Mistakes?

After two weeks of selling Prestariang, I never expect it will continue to shoot up. With heavy selling pressure everyday, it turns out that EPF become the saviour and the major shareholders. I always wonder who will manage to absorb those selling pressure.  I believe EPF that has continuous cash flow will push up this counter so that they manage to pay higher dividend to the EPF holders.

On the other side, Supermax is getting higher selling pressure as well. Ever since the boss stand up for PKR, EPF is selling down and stop becoming the major shareholder. I also wonder who are the person who bought those shares since no announcement about who turn up to become major share holders. If it is the retail shareholders, it will be hard for Supermax to maintain its share price since retail shareholders usually hold shorter duration compare those institutions. Since MERS is still around Saudi and infecting more places, I believe glove counters will benefit from this disease although I hope it will not spread since its very deadly.

Less wait and see, the difference between this two counters. It will be interesting to see whether there exist any difference when EPF enter or exit. Today I also bought in CBIP clearing all my cash and I am 100% in stocks again. Although FED always threaten to stop QE, I believe those weak US data will force them to continue or create new move. Macroeconomy factors are always hard to predict so just look at the fundamental of the company and stay with it as long as it earning money.

To keep or to sell?

I think many who invested earlier will encounter this question. With the bull run wildly in May, its normal for any stock to increase more than 20%. Within my portfolio, out of the four stock- Cscstel, Panamy, Presbhd and Supermx, only left Supermx increase less than 1% because of my entry price which is quite high.

Another good new -the dividend coming soon as below:

(i) Presbhd RM0.025 ex date 5 June 2013,
(ii) Supermx RM 0.03 ex date 5 June 2013,
(iii) Cscstel RM0.07 ex date 26 June 2013,
(iv) Panamy RM1.72 ex date 9 September 2013.

To prevent regret on selling too early, I will wait and see whether some of my stocks can continue the run.

Party is over?

This two days we observed most of the stock start to consolidate especially those that run too fast after election. The feeling good moment of earning easily with any stock come to a halt all of the sudden. This for sure wake a lot of people especially for those newbie from their dream of earning easy money through stock market. Those who enter too late will probably grab a falling knife if the stock is of bad fundamental. This usually happen to those penny stocks and cheap enough to lure greedy newbie that wish to earn extraordinary return.

The return of an investment in stock market  is always only two namely capital gain and dividend. Although the market is now in red, there are still some counters with low PE, high cash level, good dividend history and well performing company. Their price may be quite steady and slow moving but they are the gems in the stock market.  Just remember cheap stock may not be good, expensive stock may not be bad. My brother always told me that there are definitely reasons for the stocks to be cheap or expensive. To say for an example, slipper nowadays have cheap and expensive too. Crocs can sell for hundreds and still got people wanna buy for their quality and confort while  there are also market for those cheaper one like those from China that only last for shorter life span and less comfortable. Therefore, it's up to you to choose what you want? You want higher risk or steady return? Stock market is always risky for those who just follow what ever other mentioned. Remember to check by yourself since the money you invest is the hard earn money that you save for a better life tomorrow. Other people can always recommend but you should be one who make the call. In the end of the day, I wish everyone acquire good return and have a great experience in this bull.